Global deaths under-reported

Under reporting of deaths, 19 months into the pandemic

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Total deaths, 5,018,949

Total cases, 247,883,004

Total vaccine doses, 7,129,732,439

World Health Organization

https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality

Based on the excess mortality estimates produced for 2020

we are likely facing a significant undercount of total deaths directly and indirectly attributed to COVID-19

Many countries still lack functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems

Percentage of registered deaths

https://www.who.int/data/data-collection-tools/score/dashboard#/

98% in the European

10% in the African region

Comparisons difficult

Excess mortality

The difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis,

compared to those expected under normal conditions

Therefore, includes direct and indirect impact

WHO, 2020 data

Official, 1,813,100

Lower bound, 3 million

Region of the Americas in 2020

Excess mortality estimates range from 1.34 to 1.46 million

60% more than reported

European Region in 2020

Excess mortality estimates range from

1.11 to 1.21 million

50% more than reported

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

Excess death calculations

Actual worldwide toll, 16.8 million excess deaths

95% probability, 10.3 million to 19.5 million

Official versus actual deaths (Economist)

US, deaths = 745,274
US, deaths = 860,000 to 1 million

China, deaths = 4,600
China, deaths = 150,000 to 1,700,000

India, deaths = 458,000
India, deaths = 1.2 million to 7.2 million

Russia, deaths = 236,462
Russia, deaths = 870,000 to 910,000

Indonesia, deaths = 143,457
Indonesia, deaths = 300,000 to 1.2 million

Pakistan, deaths = 28,477
Pakistan, deaths = 300,000 to 910,000

Bangladesh, deaths = 27,873
Bangladesh, deaths = 200,000 to 720,000

Turkey, deaths = 71,052
Turkey, deaths = 130,000 to 420,000

Mexico, deaths = 288,464
Mexico, deaths = 560,000 to 600,000

Brazil, deaths = 608,071
Brazil, deaths = 660,000 to 740,000

Factors

Death tolls are heavily influenced by the age structure of a country’s population

Rely on the assumption that officially published excess-mortality numbers are accurate

Covid-19 disruption, some governments may have changed how they compile data

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington

https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

Total deaths are the estimated number of deaths attributable to COVID-19, including unreported deaths.

Reported and unreported deaths, 11.9 million